As part of the March 2017 Update to the Initial Business Case for the Scarborough Subway Extension, ridership projectsion for 2031 were generated for both the McCowan and Brimley alignment options using a model of GTA transportation demand.
2031 projected ridership for the Scarborough Subway Extension along the recommended McCowan alignment is shown below. Projections of riders on the SSE remain consistent with the July 2016 estimates.
Previous Business Case (Ellesmere SmartTrack Station included)
Updated Business Case (Ellesmere SmartTrack Station not included)
Subway peak point, peak direction ridership (passengers/hour)
Subway boardings, Scarborough Centre Station (passengers/day)
Net new riders (subway network vs. SRT network) (riders/day)
Peak Point Ridership: The maximum number of people at any point of a particular line within an hour.
Net New Riders: A comparison of transit ridership across the entire network. It is the increase in the total number of people taking transit in one scenario versus another scenario.
Net new riders is a metric used in the Business Case Analysis. It is a measure of all day transit ridership across the entire regional transit network. It is the increase in the total number of people taking transit in one scenario versus another scenario.
Since mid-2016, when the initial business case for the SSE was developed, some of the expectations of what Toronto's tranist network will look like in 2031 have changed. In Scarborough, the most significant change is the confirmation of SmartTrack stations, with fewer stations planned than had been modelled in June, including the removal of a station at Ellesmere.
Modelling assumes that by the time the SSE opens in 2026, SmartTrack is in operation. Some new riders have been attracted to transit by SmartTrack. Modelling indicates some SmartTrack riders may elect to take the SSE instead of SmartTrack once the subway extension is open. These riders are not considered new to transit as they are already on SmartTrack.